Good lord, its been a veritable love-fest for Hillary in the right-wing blogosphere these past couple of days as she staved-off elimination once again with her victory in Pennsylvania. Certainly, this is a broad-brushed assessment but the general mood is palpable, just as an opposite mood is apparent at the liberal websites.
The “inevitable” label to which Clinton was tagged early in the primaries has now been transferred to Obama. Many Democrats, weary of this months-long slog, wish that Hillary would just gracefully bow out so that they can move their man on to the main event against McCain.
Now, some of the glee directed towards Hillary by Republicans/conservatives is indeed based in schadenfreude as this primary grinds on into May but the majority of it is an honest-to-goodness respect for a woman who simply refuses to give-in or give-up. This is an admirable trait for a prospective CinC… hell, it’s a completely necessary trait.
Obama outspent her 2 to 1 in Pennsylvania and he still couldn’t get it done. And if there is one single thing that men dread hearing more than anything else be it in regards to work, love or sports it is: “Dude can’t close the deal”. Ouch. And this is the state of Obama currently and one in which this suspicion is now spoken openly.
He had the chance to step on her neck and crush any chances she had and he relented. And now the stories of his association with Weather Underground terrorist William Ayres are beginning to gain traction and his FORMER pastor is going to be giving a speech Monday at the National Press Club. What could possibly go wrong, there?
As for Howard Dean’s and many other Democratic big-wig's and blogger's edict that this thing gets wrapped up sooner than later and that the superdelegates decide on their candidate by June 1st, don’t count on it. The best explanation we’ve heard for this comes from John Podhoretz:
“Yes. Sure. Because politicians with the most valuable votes in America are just going to choose up sides and not spend three months being courted and feted and promised. They are going to forswear having their feet kissed, their backs massaged, their views requested, their wants fulfilled, their needs anticipated. They are going to throw their vote away rather than milk it for all it’s worth.
It’s time for people like Yglesias and other Democrats to grow up and get this straight. The point here is: A thousand or so people are going to decide this primary. It behooves those people to have this go on as long as possible, because that is how they are going to get the most goodies. Maybe this is what Hillary truly understands”
Its a single elimination tournament for her now but Clinton just keeps on grinding. On to Guam!
Thursday, April 24, 2008
You Go, Girl!
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7 comments:
Dean,
Even though we all like to see a narrative in the events of the primary race; I don't see it that way. Very early, Obama and Clinton developed core constituencies that are roughly equally divided in the Democratic electorate. Obama's core is slightly larger than Clinton's, but hers is concentrated in the larger states. The Pennsylvania primary results were wholly predictable based on an analysis of core constituencies. Daily Kos, of all places, has a very in depth analysis of the similarities of constituencies between Ohio and Pennsylvania. If their analysis is to be believed, Obama actually outperformed by 4% over what was predicted for him. That is about all he could realistically hope for.
To use a basketball analogy, Obama is ahead and running out the clock. I used some rough estimates for the remaining primaries based on their demographics (and yes, I might have a beer with some of them). I get an end game scenario where Obama only needs 100 out of 306 superdelegates to sew up the nomination, and I think I favored Clinton in my analysis. Play the game yourself at the CNN Democrat Delegate Counter and let me know how many supers Obama needs to win.
B-Daddy, cool toy - I'll check it out more later.
I know the cold hard numbers favor Obama but here's my own hoops analogy: Obama's got the lead, clock is winding down but... Hillary's fouling and Obama is not knocking down his free throws.
If the Wright/Ayres associations start getting Swiftboat-like attention, are you going to tell me that this won't ultimately influence SuperDel decisions as to electability? Too much has happened already. This is far from over.
Always remember, B-Daddy - Clinton Inc.: Blood In - Blood Out.
Ah yes. The long knives, as predicted. By the way, that link shows my total lack of presidential prognostication ability, again.
I love it.
Let's throw this into the mix, "you don't have to win today, you just have to win."
Hillary may even cede the point (to herself and Bill)that Obama will win. It is in her best interest to mortally wound him for the general election to put her in the catbird seat in four years.
And Bdaddy was right in his comments past. She did not win by 10%. When Fox news pointed this out to a surrogate that it was only 9.6%, "that's still double digits" How's that for stretching it.
The Ass Baboon of Venus also is a firm believer we must not disenfranchise voters of MI and FL. "AND..she actually IS winning the popular vote. If the Dems held primaries, winner take all like the Republicans, she would be ahead in deligates also"
Hey wait a minute, Miss Venus, did you just pay tribute to the Republicans? I will now pick up my jaw from the linoleum.
Dawg, it was 9.2% when the dust settled (reference, today's The Economist, print edition, not online.)
I stand corrected, your royal highn-ass. Just making a point. Jeesh, no comment on the catbird seat anal-isis?
How do you make this guy: :-), stick his toungue out?
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