A "Victory" perhaps.... but for whom?

We’ve been scratching our heads the past couple of days trying to square the reaction to the latest National Intelligence Estimate report on Iran’s nuclear weapons program against our own perceptions of the same.

Perhaps best summing up how this is being spun is the front page of the Drudge Report today which has the caption of “Victory!” underneath a photo of the Iranian loon, Mahmoud Ahmedinejad. As in, hooray for the madman for his geo-political PR coup over the dunder-headed American, President Bush.

Attached article here out of Reuters starts off by claiming the latest NIE estimates contradict the Bush administration’s assertion that Tehran was developing the bomb. “Contradict” is the money word that is used in about every article we’ve read regarding this subject but is it entirely correct or applicable?

The NIE contends that Iran halted their nuclear weapons program back in ’03 but also adds "We do not know whether (Iran) currently intends to develop nuclear weapons." This is important because the NIE doesn’t know…. there is no conclusive way to determine this given NIE’s means.

But here’s what we do know: it was indeed Mahmoud that was over here just a couple months back asserting his country's own right to develop and acquire nuclear technology. And applying the reasonable man theory, why wouldn’t a kook like Mahmoud intend on developing nuclear weapons? Guys like this remind us of the story of the Scorpion and the Frog. American standards of justice for determining guilt, innocence and intent don’t apply and shouldn’t apply here. We know who this guy is and we know what he would like to do regardless of the existence of any concrete material evidence.

Here’s some more from the article: “But the new assessment found Iran was continuing to develop technical means that could be used to build a bomb and it would likely be capable of producing enough enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon "sometime during the 2010-2015 time-frame."

And remember: The same NIE of whose report the President’s critics are agush, is the very same agency that botched pre-war estimates on Sadaam’s WMD program.

After taking this all in, are you left with the impression that Iran’s nuke program is as cold-iron as many are portraying it to be or would like it to be in order to score political points?

As far as the NIE claim that Iran halted its weapons program back in ’03, there has been considerable debate over what it was that caused this to happen. Again, applying the reasonable man theory, what significant action in the Gulf Region kicked-off in ’03 and how might that have possibly influenced this decision?

You see, sometimes the most effective “diplomacy” is that which is represented in the stock scene from mob flicks where the wise guy tells the shop owner, “Today is Tuesday and its just me who stopped by to pay you a friendly visit… I’ll be back here on Friday but I won’t be flying solo…. so please have the money you owe us.” Contrary to the beliefs of the well-intended but hopelessly naïve’ “diplomacy” crowd, this is just how things often work in the big bad world of geo-politics.

Please don’t misunderstand us - we really do hope that the NIE’s most optimistic contentions are 100% correct. Iran not having nukes and not having any intention of developing/obtaining nukes is a good thing. So if it is as the NIE says it is, we can’t help but think that Drudge, perhaps, just perhaps, had the wrong mug shot above his headline.