Article here from Slate.com suggests that Barack Obama was felled in New Hampshire by good ol’ fashioned white liberal guilt. The article trots out the political phenomena known as the “Bradley effect”, named after former Los Angeles mayor, the late Tom Bradley who lost the California governorship in 1982 after polling data predicted he would win.
As the phenomena applies to the primary, poll-goers will tell the pollster they are voting for Obama so as to not appear bigoted. This phenomena takes on a much more dramatic dynamic in Iowa as the caucus rules dictate that one has to openly declare for their respective candidate at the precinct caucus. This supposedly results in neighbors wanting to “out-progressive” one another by voting for the black candidate… “Oh yeah....? Well, if there were two of them there fellers.... we'd vote for 'em both!"
As the phenomena applies to the primary, poll-goers will tell the pollster they are voting for Obama so as to not appear bigoted. This phenomena takes on a much more dramatic dynamic in Iowa as the caucus rules dictate that one has to openly declare for their respective candidate at the precinct caucus. This supposedly results in neighbors wanting to “out-progressive” one another by voting for the black candidate… “Oh yeah....? Well, if there were two of them there fellers.... we'd vote for 'em both!"
Of course, the alleged Bradley effect is muted as one’s bigotry is kept perfectly secret in the anonymous voting booths of New Hampshire.
As far as we’re concerned, we’re not so convinced. Upon further review, it appears some good ol’-fashioned big city machine politics was more responsible for Hillary’s “comeback” than anything else. If anecdotal evidence and license plates are to be believed, Clinton Inc.'s “get out the vote” drive reached across state boundaries to Massachusetts and Vermont to take advantage of New Hampshire’s lax voting regulations.
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4 comments:
Dean,
Rush has a great quote about the whole machine Democrat angle. "Remember this: the Democrat machine candidate always wins; the upstart insurgents never do. It's all you need to know. Forget all the polls." See Wednesday's quotes here.
B-Daddy, I saw that. And guess who jumped onboard right after Iowa? Carville and Begala. This is shaping up as "Himself's" campaign more and more.
I wouldn't be so quick to assume, "history as usual" You guys may be right, but losing Iowa, just to be the comeback kid, was not part of the strategy.
Listen, I was one who believed in her corronation from the begining. But the Democratic machine is now the MoveOn.org freaks. As much as they would like to believe, they are far left of the Democratic base.
At some point, and many times she has, Hil will have to distance herself from the left wing fringe.
If I were a bettin' man, I wouldn't put $$ on Clinton.
How many times have we seen the real world turn up the phrase, "you couldnt make this s*&t up"?
'Dawg, respectfully disagree... the Democrat machine is certainly not the netroot-left crowd.
Clinton Inc. is assembling the "old guard" with Carville and Begala coming onboard and Obama has received Kerry's endorsement. Chalk up one for the establishment.
Brother, can you spare some "change?".
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